Monday, March 2, 2009

Not that surprising

So I did a little research today. Of course the Internet has all the information we need, or that "they" want us to have. Lets start with the "facts".
-At 3:45pm I currently have 10" of snow.
-The Forecast for Casco (at 9pm last night) predicted 6"-8".
-It is still snowing.
After the blunder of last weeks misguided attempt to warn us of snow, it really comes as no surprise that this storm has also been underestimated. So once again the more"accurate" weather forecast is to look out the window. Amazing that I have a better grasp on the climate just by drawing the shades. After all I have no radars, barometers, weather balloons, or fancy high tech green screens. These must have some relevance on the "accuracy" of our weathermen, right? Well I got to thinking, "how accurate are they"? After some pretty basic search engine shenanigans, the word "accuracy" is a debatable term amongst meteorologists. It seems in terms of temperature, if they are within 10 degrees, high or low, they made an accurate forecast. So to you and me, that means 30 is the same as 40 degrees? I think not. As for overall weather, if they say "Sun", as long as it doesn't rain. ACCURATE! So it turns out that the average accuracy of predicted forecasts is 50-65%. And this number is way skewed in my book based on the above facts. Also the forecast that we see online or on TV is a collaborative effort of multiple forecasters. They can't even make the call by themselves! Where do these guys (or girls) get their info and training from? Another search reveals that a BA degree in meteorology takes an average of three years. Some go on for another two to get their masters. But wait! Did you know that you can get the degree in a one year online course! Here is the ultimate kick in the pants. A degree is NOT required for most TV and radio meteorologist jobs. I'm not even sure why we pay attention to the weather anymore. If I got all my school work 50-65% right. I would have failed high school. But I guess I could still get a job predicting the weather.

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